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Universitatea Craiova vs Copenhagen: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00

Universitatea Craiova19th, 1 pt
–Matchday 6
Copenhagen2nd, 3 pts
29%Universitatea Craiova win
26%Draw
46%Copenhagen win

The model gives Universitatea Craiova a 29% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Copenhagen 46%. Universitatea Craiova's chance of going through is 68% now: a win would take it to 89%, a defeat to 54%. Copenhagen's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 97%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeUniversitatea Craiova: top 8Universitatea Craiova: throughCopenhagen: top 8Copenhagen: through
Now9%68%69%99%
Universitatea Craiova win22%89%47%97%
Draw6%69%63%99%
Copenhagen win2%54%86%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.1 – 1.5Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
23%Universitatea Craiova clean sheet
33%Copenhagen clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Universitatea Craiova

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DGetafe H1–1
  2. MD2Inter Escaldes A22 October
  3. MD3Egnatia H5 November
  4. MD4Brighton A26 November
  5. MD5Kairat Almaty A10 December
  6. MD6Copenhagen H this match17 December

Copenhagen

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WBraga H3–0
  2. MD2Crvena Zvezda A22 October
  3. MD3Iberia Tbilisi H5 November
  4. MD4Inter Escaldes A26 November
  5. MD5Lugano H10 December
  6. MD6Universitatea Craiova A this match17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Universitatea Craiova vs FC Copenhagen?

The model gives Universitatea Craiova a 29% chance of winning and Copenhagen 46%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Universitatea Craiova vs FC Copenhagen?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for Universitatea Craiova and 1.5 for Copenhagen, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Universitatea Craiova?

Universitatea Craiova's qualification chance is 68% right now. A win would make it 89%, a draw 69% and a defeat 54%.

What does this match mean for Copenhagen?

Copenhagen's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 97%.

When is Universitatea Craiova vs Copenhagen played?

Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →