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Monaco vs Lincoln Red Imps: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00

Monaco9th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Lincoln Red Imps25th, 0 pts
89%Monaco win
8%Draw
3%Lincoln Red Imps win

The model gives Monaco a 89% chance of winning, a draw 8% and Lincoln Red Imps 3%. Monaco's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 90%. Lincoln Red Imps's chance of going through is 7% now: a win would take it to 32%, a defeat to 5%. The most likely score is 3–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeMonaco: top 8Monaco: throughLincoln Red Imps: top 8Lincoln Red Imps: through
Now65%99%<1%7%
Monaco win69%99%<1%5%
Draw38%95%<1%13%
Lincoln Red Imps win25%90%1%32%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

3.3 – 0.5Expected goals
38%Both teams score
73%3 or more goals
60%Monaco clean sheet
4%Lincoln Red Imps clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

3–013%
2–012%
4–011%
1–07%
5–07%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Monaco

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WCSKA Sofia A2–1
  2. MD2Freiburg H22 October
  3. MD3Nordsjælland H5 November
  4. MD4Hearts A26 November
  5. MD5Brighton A10 December
  6. MD6Lincoln Red Imps H this match17 December

Lincoln Red Imps

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LBrann A1–2
  2. MD2Twente H22 October
  3. MD3Hajduk Split H5 November
  4. MD4Egnatia A26 November
  5. MD5Midtjylland H10 December
  6. MD6Monaco A this match17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Monaco vs Lincoln Red Imps?

The model gives Monaco a 89% chance of winning and Lincoln Red Imps 3%, with a draw at 8%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 3–0 (13%), followed by 2–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Monaco vs Lincoln Red Imps?

The model gives both teams scoring a 38% chance. Expected goals are 3.3 for Monaco and 0.5 for Lincoln Red Imps, and the match has 3 or more goals in 73% of cases.

What does this match mean for Monaco?

Monaco's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 95% and a defeat 90%.

What does this match mean for Lincoln Red Imps?

Lincoln Red Imps's qualification chance is 7% right now. A win would make it 32%, a draw 13% and a defeat 5%.

When is Monaco vs Lincoln Red Imps played?

Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →