Pafos vs Hearts: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00
PafosLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 6
HeartsLeague phase not started yet
43%Pafos win
26%Draw
31%Hearts win
The model gives Pafos a 43% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Hearts 31%. Pafos's chance of going through is 55% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 34%. Hearts's chance of going through is 67% now: a win would take it to 87%, a defeat to 52%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Pafos: top 8 | Pafos: through | Hearts: top 8 | Hearts: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 8% | 55% | 14% | 67% |
| Pafos win | 14% | 75% | 6% | 52% |
| Draw | 4% | 49% | 11% | 67% |
| Hearts win | 2% | 34% | 28% | 87% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%
Other matchday 6 fixtures
- Ajax – Getafe
- Monaco – Lincoln Red Imps
- Atalanta – Mjällby
- Lugano – Sint-Truidense
- Midtjylland – Hajduk Split
- Nordsjælland – KuPS Kuopio
- Twente – Kairat Almaty
- Borac – Riga FC
- Crvena Zvezda – Trabzonspor
- Jablonec – Iberia Tbilisi
- Kauno Žalgiris – Freiburg
- Inter Escaldes – Aarhus
- Gent – Brann
- Panathinaikos – Brighton
- CSKA Sofia – Thun
- Braga – Egnatia
- Universitatea Craiova – Copenhagen