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Pafos vs Hearts: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00

Pafos32nd, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Hearts20th, 1 pt
42%Pafos win
26%Draw
32%Hearts win

The model gives Pafos a 42% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Hearts 32%. Pafos's chance of going through is 50% now: a win would take it to 71%, a defeat to 28%. Hearts's chance of going through is 63% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 46%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomePafos: top 8Pafos: throughHearts: top 8Hearts: through
Now5%50%8%63%
Pafos win10%71%2%46%
Draw2%43%6%62%
Hearts win1%28%17%86%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.4 – 1.2Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
31%Pafos clean sheet
25%Hearts clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–07%
2–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Pafos

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LAtalanta A1–3
  2. MD2Riga FC H22 October
  3. MD3Twente A5 November
  4. MD4Midtjylland H26 November
  5. MD5Mjällby A10 December
  6. MD6Hearts H this match17 December

Hearts

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DNordsjælland H1–1
  2. MD2Trabzonspor A22 October
  3. MD3Thun A5 November
  4. MD4Monaco H26 November
  5. MD5Borac H10 December
  6. MD6Pafos A this match17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Pafos vs Hearts?

The model gives Pafos a 42% chance of winning and Hearts 32%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Pafos vs Hearts?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Pafos and 1.2 for Hearts, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Pafos?

Pafos's qualification chance is 50% right now. A win would make it 71%, a draw 43% and a defeat 28%.

What does this match mean for Hearts?

Hearts's qualification chance is 63% right now. A win would make it 86%, a draw 62% and a defeat 46%.

When is Pafos vs Hearts played?

Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →