Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45
The model gives Atalanta a 83% chance of winning, a draw 12% and Kairat Almaty 5%. Atalanta's top-8 chance is 90% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 64%. Kairat Almaty's chance of going through is 41% now: a win would take it to 78%, a defeat to 37%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Atalanta: top 8 | Atalanta: through | Kairat Almaty: top 8 | Kairat Almaty: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 90% | >99% | 2% | 41% |
| Atalanta win | 94% | 100% | 1% | 37% |
| Draw | 78% | >99% | 4% | 51% |
| Kairat Almaty win | 64% | 98% | 15% | 78% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Kairat Almaty
- MD1DRiga FC A1–1
- MD2Panathinaikos H22 October
- MD3Atalanta A this match5 November
- MD4Mjällby H26 November
- MD5Universitatea Craiova H10 December
- MD6Twente A17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?
The model gives Atalanta a 83% chance of winning and Kairat Almaty 5%, with a draw at 12%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 3–0 (12%).
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?
The model gives both teams scoring a 42% chance. Expected goals are 2.8 for Atalanta and 0.6 for Kairat Almaty, and the match has 3 or more goals in 66% of cases.
What does this match mean for Atalanta?
Atalanta's top-8 chance is 90% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 78% and a defeat 64%.
What does this match mean for Kairat Almaty?
Kairat Almaty's qualification chance is 41% right now. A win would make it 78%, a draw 51% and a defeat 37%.
When is Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty played?
Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 3).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Aarhus – Braga
- Midtjylland – Ajax
- Thun – Hearts
- Crvena Zvezda – Inter Escaldes
- KuPS Kuopio – Gent
- Lincoln Red Imps – Hajduk Split
- Mjällby – Borac
- Trabzonspor – Freiburg
- Monaco – Nordsjælland
- Copenhagen – Iberia Tbilisi
- Lugano – Kauno Žalgiris
- Twente – Pafos
- Getafe – Brighton
- Sint-Truidense – Brann
- Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia
- Riga FC – Jablonec
- Universitatea Craiova – Egnatia