Crvena Zvezda vs Trabzonspor: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00
The model gives Crvena Zvezda a 43% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Trabzonspor 31%. Crvena Zvezda's chance of going through is 78% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 61%. Trabzonspor's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 88%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Crvena Zvezda: top 8 | Crvena Zvezda: through | Trabzonspor: top 8 | Trabzonspor: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 15% | 78% | 41% | 93% |
| Crvena Zvezda win | 28% | 92% | 25% | 88% |
| Draw | 8% | 75% | 38% | 95% |
| Trabzonspor win | 4% | 61% | 65% | 99% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Crvena Zvezda
- MD1LLugano A2–3
- MD2Copenhagen H22 October
- MD3Inter Escaldes H5 November
- MD4Gent A26 November
- MD5Iberia Tbilisi A10 December
- MD6Trabzonspor H this match17 December
Trabzonspor
- MD1WKuPS Kuopio A4–2
- MD2Hearts H22 October
- MD3Freiburg H5 November
- MD4CSKA Sofia A26 November
- MD5Jablonec H10 December
- MD6Crvena Zvezda A this match17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Red Star Belgrade vs Trabzonspor?
The model gives Crvena Zvezda a 43% chance of winning and Trabzonspor 31%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).
Will both teams score in Red Star Belgrade vs Trabzonspor?
The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Crvena Zvezda and 1.2 for Trabzonspor, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.
What does this match mean for Crvena Zvezda?
Crvena Zvezda's qualification chance is 78% right now. A win would make it 92%, a draw 75% and a defeat 61%.
What does this match mean for Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor's qualification chance is 93% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 95% and a defeat 88%.
When is Crvena Zvezda vs Trabzonspor played?
Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 6 fixtures
- Ajax – Getafe
- Monaco – Lincoln Red Imps
- Atalanta – Mjällby
- Lugano – Sint-Truidense
- Midtjylland – Hajduk Split
- Nordsjælland – KuPS Kuopio
- Twente – Kairat Almaty
- Borac – Riga FC
- Jablonec – Iberia Tbilisi
- Kauno Žalgiris – Freiburg
- Inter Escaldes – Aarhus
- Gent – Brann
- Pafos – Hearts
- Panathinaikos – Brighton
- CSKA Sofia – Thun
- Braga – Egnatia
- Universitatea Craiova – Copenhagen