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Atalanta vs Mjällby: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00

Atalanta4th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Mjällby6th, 3 pts
78%Atalanta win
15%Draw
8%Mjällby win

The model gives Atalanta a 78% chance of winning, a draw 15% and Mjällby 8%. Atalanta's top-8 chance is 90% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 66%. Mjällby's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 86%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAtalanta: top 8Atalanta: throughMjällby: top 8Mjällby: through
Now90%>99%27%88%
Atalanta win95%100%21%86%
Draw79%>99%36%94%
Mjällby win66%99%64%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.5 – 0.7Expected goals
45%Both teams score
62%3 or more goals
52%Atalanta clean sheet
8%Mjällby clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
3–011%
1–010%
2–19%
3–17%
4–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Atalanta

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WPafos H3–1
  2. MD2Ajax A22 October
  3. MD3Kairat Almaty H5 November
  4. MD4Borac A26 November
  5. MD5Riga FC A10 December
  6. MD6Mjällby H this match17 December

Mjällby

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WInter Escaldes H2–0
  2. MD2Iberia Tbilisi A22 October
  3. MD3Borac H5 November
  4. MD4Kairat Almaty A26 November
  5. MD5Pafos H10 December
  6. MD6Atalanta A this match17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Atalanta vs Mjällby?

The model gives Atalanta a 78% chance of winning and Mjällby 8%, with a draw at 15%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 3–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Mjällby?

The model gives both teams scoring a 45% chance. Expected goals are 2.5 for Atalanta and 0.7 for Mjällby, and the match has 3 or more goals in 62% of cases.

What does this match mean for Atalanta?

Atalanta's top-8 chance is 90% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 79% and a defeat 66%.

What does this match mean for Mjällby?

Mjällby's qualification chance is 88% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 94% and a defeat 86%.

When is Atalanta vs Mjällby played?

Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →