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Panathinaikos vs Brighton: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00

Panathinaikos10th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Brighton1st, 3 pts
26%Panathinaikos win
25%Draw
49%Brighton win

The model gives Panathinaikos a 26% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Brighton 49%. Panathinaikos's chance of going through is 85% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 76%. Brighton's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomePanathinaikos: top 8Panathinaikos: throughBrighton: top 8Brighton: through
Now23%85%66%98%
Panathinaikos win47%97%42%96%
Draw20%88%58%98%
Brighton win11%76%83%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.1 – 1.6Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
21%Panathinaikos clean sheet
35%Brighton clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Panathinaikos

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WBorac H2–1
  2. MD2Kairat Almaty A22 October
  3. MD3CSKA Sofia H5 November
  4. MD4Nordsjælland A26 November
  5. MD5Freiburg A10 December
  6. MD6Brighton H this match17 December

Brighton

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WKauno Žalgiris H4–0
  2. MD2Jablonec A22 October
  3. MD3Getafe A5 November
  4. MD4Universitatea Craiova H26 November
  5. MD5Monaco H10 December
  6. MD6Panathinaikos A this match17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Panathinaikos vs Brighton?

The model gives Panathinaikos a 26% chance of winning and Brighton 49%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Brighton?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for Panathinaikos and 1.6 for Brighton, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Panathinaikos?

Panathinaikos's qualification chance is 85% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 88% and a defeat 76%.

What does this match mean for Brighton?

Brighton's qualification chance is 98% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 96%.

When is Panathinaikos vs Brighton played?

Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 6 fixtures

Full matchday 6: what every team needs →