Inter Escaldes vs Aarhus: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 6 · Thursday 17 December, 21:00
The model gives Inter Escaldes a 19% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Aarhus 58%. Inter Escaldes's chance of going through is 6% now: a win would take it to 20%, a defeat to 2%. Aarhus's chance of going through is 72% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 46%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Inter Escaldes: top 8 | Inter Escaldes: through | Aarhus: top 8 | Aarhus: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | <1% | 6% | 12% | 72% |
| Inter Escaldes win | <1% | 20% | 2% | 46% |
| Draw | <1% | 6% | 5% | 61% |
| Aarhus win | 0% | 2% | 18% | 85% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Inter Escaldes
- MD1LMjällby A0–2
- MD2Universitatea Craiova H22 October
- MD3Crvena Zvezda A5 November
- MD4Copenhagen H26 November
- MD5Getafe A10 December
- MD6Aarhus H this match17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Inter Escaldes vs Aarhus?
The model gives Inter Escaldes a 19% chance of winning and Aarhus 58%, with a draw at 23%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in Inter Escaldes vs Aarhus?
The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Inter Escaldes and 1.8 for Aarhus, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.
What does this match mean for Inter Escaldes?
Inter Escaldes's qualification chance is 6% right now. A win would make it 20%, a draw 6% and a defeat 2%.
What does this match mean for Aarhus?
Aarhus's qualification chance is 72% right now. A win would make it 85%, a draw 61% and a defeat 46%.
When is Inter Escaldes vs Aarhus played?
Thursday 17 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 6).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 6 fixtures
- Ajax – Getafe
- Monaco – Lincoln Red Imps
- Atalanta – Mjällby
- Lugano – Sint-Truidense
- Midtjylland – Hajduk Split
- Nordsjælland – KuPS Kuopio
- Twente – Kairat Almaty
- Borac – Riga FC
- Crvena Zvezda – Trabzonspor
- Jablonec – Iberia Tbilisi
- Kauno Žalgiris – Freiburg
- Gent – Brann
- Pafos – Hearts
- Panathinaikos – Brighton
- CSKA Sofia – Thun
- Braga – Egnatia
- Universitatea Craiova – Copenhagen