Knockout Math
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Thun vs Gent: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

ThunLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 5
GentLeague phase not started yet
31%Thun win
26%Draw
43%Gent win

The model gives Thun a 31% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Gent 43%. Thun's chance of going through is 48% now: a win would take it to 72%, a defeat to 32%. Gent's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 68%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Thun: top 8Thun: throughGent: top 8Gent: through
Now6%48%28%82%
Thun win14%72%12%68%
Draw4%46%20%80%
Gent win2%32%43%93%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–07%

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