Knockout Math
Live
EN

Thun vs Gent: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Thun29th, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Gent14th, 3 pts
29%Thun win
26%Draw
45%Gent win

The model gives Thun a 29% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Gent 45%. Thun's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 62%, a defeat to 22%. Gent's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 85%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeThun: top 8Thun: throughGent: top 8Gent: through
Now2%38%41%93%
Thun win7%62%20%85%
Draw1%36%31%93%
Gent win<1%22%60%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.1 – 1.5Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
23%Thun clean sheet
32%Gent clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Thun

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LTwente A0–1
  2. MD2Hajduk Split H22 October
  3. MD3Hearts H5 November
  4. MD4Ajax A26 November
  5. MD5Gent H this match10 December
  6. MD6CSKA Sofia A17 December

Gent

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WAarhus H1–0
  2. MD2Braga A22 October
  3. MD3KuPS Kuopio A5 November
  4. MD4Crvena Zvezda H26 November
  5. MD5Thun A this match10 December
  6. MD6Brann H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Thun vs Gent?

The model gives Thun a 29% chance of winning and Gent 45%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Thun vs Gent?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for Thun and 1.5 for Gent, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Thun?

Thun's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 62%, a draw 36% and a defeat 22%.

What does this match mean for Gent?

Gent's qualification chance is 93% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 93% and a defeat 85%.

When is Thun vs Gent played?

Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →