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Copenhagen vs Lugano: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

Copenhagen2nd, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Lugano8th, 3 pts
56%Copenhagen win
23%Draw
20%Lugano win

The model gives Copenhagen a 56% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Lugano 20%. Copenhagen's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. Lugano's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 80%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeCopenhagen: top 8Copenhagen: throughLugano: top 8Lugano: through
Now69%99%23%86%
Copenhagen win83%>99%13%80%
Draw58%99%23%90%
Lugano win42%96%51%98%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.8 – 0.9Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
39%Copenhagen clean sheet
17%Lugano clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Copenhagen

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WBraga H3–0
  2. MD2Crvena Zvezda A22 October
  3. MD3Iberia Tbilisi H5 November
  4. MD4Inter Escaldes A26 November
  5. MD5Lugano H this match10 December
  6. MD6Universitatea Craiova A17 December

Lugano

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WCrvena Zvezda H3–2
  2. MD2Getafe A22 October
  3. MD3Kauno Žalgiris H5 November
  4. MD4Jablonec A26 November
  5. MD5Copenhagen A this match10 December
  6. MD6Sint-Truidense H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in FC Copenhagen vs Lugano?

The model gives Copenhagen a 56% chance of winning and Lugano 20%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in FC Copenhagen vs Lugano?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Copenhagen and 0.9 for Lugano, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Copenhagen?

Copenhagen's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 96%.

What does this match mean for Lugano?

Lugano's qualification chance is 86% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 90% and a defeat 80%.

When is Copenhagen vs Lugano played?

Thursday 10 December, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →