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Hearts vs Borac: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Hearts20th, 1 pt
–Matchday 5
Borac27th, 0 pts
59%Hearts win
23%Draw
18%Borac win

The model gives Hearts a 59% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Borac 18%. Hearts's chance of going through is 63% now: a win would take it to 77%, a defeat to 35%. Borac's chance of going through is 27% now: a win would take it to 59%, a defeat to 16%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeHearts: top 8Hearts: throughBorac: top 8Borac: through
Now8%63%1%27%
Hearts win12%77%<1%16%
Draw3%48%1%31%
Borac win1%35%4%59%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.8 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
52%3 or more goals
40%Hearts clean sheet
16%Borac clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Hearts

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DNordsjælland H1–1
  2. MD2Trabzonspor A22 October
  3. MD3Thun A5 November
  4. MD4Monaco H26 November
  5. MD5Borac H this match10 December
  6. MD6Pafos A17 December

Borac

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LPanathinaikos A1–2
  2. MD2KuPS Kuopio H22 October
  3. MD3Mjällby A5 November
  4. MD4Atalanta H26 November
  5. MD5Hearts A this match10 December
  6. MD6Riga FC H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Hearts vs Borac?

The model gives Hearts a 59% chance of winning and Borac 18%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Hearts vs Borac?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hearts and 0.9 for Borac, and the match has 3 or more goals in 52% of cases.

What does this match mean for Hearts?

Hearts's qualification chance is 63% right now. A win would make it 77%, a draw 48% and a defeat 35%.

What does this match mean for Borac?

Borac's qualification chance is 27% right now. A win would make it 59%, a draw 31% and a defeat 16%.

When is Hearts vs Borac played?

Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →