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Freiburg vs Panathinaikos: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

Freiburg7th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Panathinaikos10th, 3 pts
61%Freiburg win
22%Draw
17%Panathinaikos win

The model gives Freiburg a 61% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Panathinaikos 17%. Freiburg's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 90%. Panathinaikos's chance of going through is 85% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 79%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeFreiburg: top 8Freiburg: throughPanathinaikos: top 8Panathinaikos: through
Now56%97%23%85%
Freiburg win69%>99%14%79%
Draw42%96%25%90%
Panathinaikos win26%90%51%98%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.9 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
52%3 or more goals
41%Freiburg clean sheet
15%Panathinaikos clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Freiburg

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WJablonec H3–2
  2. MD2Monaco A22 October
  3. MD3Trabzonspor A5 November
  4. MD4Twente H26 November
  5. MD5Panathinaikos H this match10 December
  6. MD6Kauno Žalgiris A17 December

Panathinaikos

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WBorac H2–1
  2. MD2Kairat Almaty A22 October
  3. MD3CSKA Sofia H5 November
  4. MD4Nordsjælland A26 November
  5. MD5Freiburg A this match10 December
  6. MD6Brighton H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Freiburg vs Panathinaikos?

The model gives Freiburg a 61% chance of winning and Panathinaikos 17%, with a draw at 22%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Freiburg vs Panathinaikos?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.9 for Freiburg and 0.9 for Panathinaikos, and the match has 3 or more goals in 52% of cases.

What does this match mean for Freiburg?

Freiburg's qualification chance is 97% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 96% and a defeat 90%.

What does this match mean for Panathinaikos?

Panathinaikos's qualification chance is 85% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 90% and a defeat 79%.

When is Freiburg vs Panathinaikos played?

Thursday 10 December, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →