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Brighton vs Monaco: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Brighton1st, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Monaco9th, 3 pts
47%Brighton win
26%Draw
28%Monaco win

The model gives Brighton a 47% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Monaco 28%. Brighton's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. Monaco's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBrighton: top 8Brighton: throughMonaco: top 8Monaco: through
Now66%98%65%99%
Brighton win84%>99%51%98%
Draw59%99%67%99%
Monaco win43%96%88%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
33%Brighton clean sheet
22%Monaco clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Brighton

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WKauno Žalgiris H4–0
  2. MD2Jablonec A22 October
  3. MD3Getafe A5 November
  4. MD4Universitatea Craiova H26 November
  5. MD5Monaco H this match10 December
  6. MD6Panathinaikos A17 December

Monaco

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WCSKA Sofia A2–1
  2. MD2Freiburg H22 October
  3. MD3Nordsjælland H5 November
  4. MD4Hearts A26 November
  5. MD5Brighton A this match10 December
  6. MD6Lincoln Red Imps H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Brighton vs Monaco?

The model gives Brighton a 47% chance of winning and Monaco 28%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Brighton vs Monaco?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for Brighton and 1.1 for Monaco, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Brighton?

Brighton's qualification chance is 98% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 96%.

What does this match mean for Monaco?

Monaco's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw 99% and a defeat 98%.

When is Brighton vs Monaco played?

Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →