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KuPS Kuopio vs CSKA Sofia: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

KuPS Kuopio31st, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
CSKA Sofia28th, 0 pts
39%KuPS Kuopio win
26%Draw
35%CSKA Sofia win

The model gives KuPS Kuopio a 39% chance of winning, a draw 26% and CSKA Sofia 35%. KuPS Kuopio's chance of going through is 31% now: a win would take it to 51%, a defeat to 13%. CSKA Sofia's chance of going through is 43% now: a win would take it to 67%, a defeat to 25%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeKuPS Kuopio: top 8KuPS Kuopio: throughCSKA Sofia: top 8CSKA Sofia: through
Now1%31%3%43%
KuPS Kuopio win3%51%1%25%
Draw<1%24%2%39%
CSKA Sofia win<1%13%7%67%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.2Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
29%KuPS Kuopio clean sheet
26%CSKA Sofia clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

KuPS Kuopio

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LTrabzonspor H2–4
  2. MD2Borac A22 October
  3. MD3Gent H5 November
  4. MD4Braga A26 November
  5. MD5CSKA Sofia H this match10 December
  6. MD6Nordsjælland A17 December

CSKA Sofia

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LMonaco H1–2
  2. MD2Nordsjælland A22 October
  3. MD3Panathinaikos A5 November
  4. MD4Trabzonspor H26 November
  5. MD5KuPS Kuopio A this match10 December
  6. MD6Thun H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in KuPS Kuopio vs CSKA Sofia?

The model gives KuPS Kuopio a 39% chance of winning and CSKA Sofia 35%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in KuPS Kuopio vs CSKA Sofia?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for KuPS Kuopio and 1.2 for CSKA Sofia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for KuPS Kuopio?

KuPS Kuopio's qualification chance is 31% right now. A win would make it 51%, a draw 24% and a defeat 13%.

What does this match mean for CSKA Sofia?

CSKA Sofia's qualification chance is 43% right now. A win would make it 67%, a draw 39% and a defeat 25%.

When is KuPS Kuopio vs CSKA Sofia played?

Thursday 10 December, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →