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Ajax vs Thun: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

Ajax26th, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Thun29th, 0 pts
66%Ajax win
20%Draw
14%Thun win

The model gives Ajax a 66% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Thun 14%. Ajax's chance of going through is 69% now: a win would take it to 80%, a defeat to 40%. Thun's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 71%, a defeat to 29%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAjax: top 8Ajax: throughThun: top 8Thun: through
Now11%69%2%38%
Ajax win15%80%1%29%
Draw4%55%2%44%
Thun win2%40%10%71%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.0 – 0.8Expected goals
49%Both teams score
54%3 or more goals
44%Ajax clean sheet
13%Thun clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Ajax

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LHajduk Split A1–2
  2. MD2Atalanta H22 October
  3. MD3Midtjylland A5 November
  4. MD4Thun H this match26 November
  5. MD5Sint-Truidense A10 December
  6. MD6Getafe H17 December

Thun

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LTwente A0–1
  2. MD2Hajduk Split H22 October
  3. MD3Hearts H5 November
  4. MD4Ajax A this match26 November
  5. MD5Gent H10 December
  6. MD6CSKA Sofia A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Ajax vs Thun?

The model gives Ajax a 66% chance of winning and Thun 14%, with a draw at 20%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Ajax vs Thun?

The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 2.0 for Ajax and 0.8 for Thun, and the match has 3 or more goals in 54% of cases.

What does this match mean for Ajax?

Ajax's qualification chance is 69% right now. A win would make it 80%, a draw 55% and a defeat 40%.

What does this match mean for Thun?

Thun's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 71%, a draw 44% and a defeat 29%.

When is Ajax vs Thun played?

Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →