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Hajduk Split vs Nordsjælland: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Hajduk Split12th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Nordsjælland16th, 1 pt
43%Hajduk Split win
26%Draw
31%Nordsjælland win

The model gives Hajduk Split a 43% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Nordsjælland 31%. Hajduk Split's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 81%. Nordsjælland's chance of going through is 72% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 57%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeHajduk Split: top 8Hajduk Split: throughNordsjælland: top 8Nordsjælland: through
Now34%91%11%72%
Hajduk Split win53%98%3%57%
Draw26%90%8%72%
Nordsjælland win16%81%25%91%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.4 – 1.2Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
31%Hajduk Split clean sheet
24%Nordsjælland clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Hajduk Split

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WAjax H2–1
  2. MD2Thun A22 October
  3. MD3Lincoln Red Imps A5 November
  4. MD4Sint-Truidense H26 November
  5. MD5Nordsjælland H this match10 December
  6. MD6Midtjylland A17 December

Nordsjælland

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DHearts A1–1
  2. MD2CSKA Sofia H22 October
  3. MD3Monaco A5 November
  4. MD4Panathinaikos H26 November
  5. MD5Hajduk Split A this match10 December
  6. MD6KuPS Kuopio H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Hajduk Split vs Nordsjælland?

The model gives Hajduk Split a 43% chance of winning and Nordsjælland 31%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Hajduk Split vs Nordsjælland?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hajduk Split and 1.2 for Nordsjælland, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Hajduk Split?

Hajduk Split's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 90% and a defeat 81%.

What does this match mean for Nordsjælland?

Nordsjælland's qualification chance is 72% right now. A win would make it 91%, a draw 72% and a defeat 57%.

When is Hajduk Split vs Nordsjælland played?

Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →