Knockout Math
Live
EN

Gent vs Crvena Zvezda: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00

Gent14th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Crvena Zvezda24th, 0 pts
46%Gent win
26%Draw
28%Crvena Zvezda win

The model gives Gent a 46% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Crvena Zvezda 28%. Gent's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 84%. Crvena Zvezda's chance of going through is 78% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 67%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeGent: top 8Gent: throughCrvena Zvezda: top 8Crvena Zvezda: through
Now41%93%15%78%
Gent win59%99%6%67%
Draw31%93%12%80%
Crvena Zvezda win19%84%35%94%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
33%Gent clean sheet
22%Crvena Zvezda clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Gent

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WAarhus H1–0
  2. MD2Braga A22 October
  3. MD3KuPS Kuopio A5 November
  4. MD4Crvena Zvezda H this match26 November
  5. MD5Thun A10 December
  6. MD6Brann H17 December

Crvena Zvezda

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LLugano A2–3
  2. MD2Copenhagen H22 October
  3. MD3Inter Escaldes H5 November
  4. MD4Gent A this match26 November
  5. MD5Iberia Tbilisi A10 December
  6. MD6Trabzonspor H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Gent vs Red Star Belgrade?

The model gives Gent a 46% chance of winning and Crvena Zvezda 28%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Gent vs Red Star Belgrade?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gent and 1.1 for Crvena Zvezda, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Gent?

Gent's qualification chance is 93% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 93% and a defeat 84%.

What does this match mean for Crvena Zvezda?

Crvena Zvezda's qualification chance is 78% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 80% and a defeat 67%.

When is Gent vs Crvena Zvezda played?

Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →