Trabzonspor vs Jablonec: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45
The model gives Trabzonspor a 59% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Jablonec 18%. Trabzonspor's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 81%. Jablonec's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 33%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Trabzonspor: top 8 | Trabzonspor: through | Jablonec: top 8 | Jablonec: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 41% | 93% | 3% | 44% |
| Trabzonspor win | 54% | 99% | 1% | 33% |
| Draw | 27% | 91% | 2% | 49% |
| Jablonec win | 16% | 81% | 11% | 75% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Trabzonspor
- MD1WKuPS Kuopio A4–2
- MD2Hearts H22 October
- MD3Freiburg H5 November
- MD4CSKA Sofia A26 November
- MD5Jablonec H this match10 December
- MD6Crvena Zvezda A17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Trabzonspor vs Jablonec?
The model gives Trabzonspor a 59% chance of winning and Jablonec 18%, with a draw at 23%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Jablonec?
The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Trabzonspor and 0.9 for Jablonec, and the match has 3 or more goals in 52% of cases.
What does this match mean for Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor's qualification chance is 93% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 91% and a defeat 81%.
What does this match mean for Jablonec?
Jablonec's qualification chance is 44% right now. A win would make it 75%, a draw 49% and a defeat 33%.
When is Trabzonspor vs Jablonec played?
Thursday 10 December, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 5).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Universitatea Craiova
- Copenhagen – Lugano
- Iberia Tbilisi – Crvena Zvezda
- Getafe – Inter Escaldes
- KuPS Kuopio – CSKA Sofia
- Lincoln Red Imps – Midtjylland
- Riga FC – Atalanta
- Freiburg – Panathinaikos
- Brann – Braga
- Aarhus – Twente
- Brighton – Monaco
- Thun – Gent
- Hearts – Borac
- Hajduk Split – Nordsjælland
- Sint-Truidense – Ajax
- Egnatia – Kauno Žalgiris
- Mjällby – Pafos