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Lincoln Red Imps vs Midtjylland: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

Lincoln Red Imps25th, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Midtjylland18th, 1 pt
12%Lincoln Red Imps win
19%Draw
69%Midtjylland win

The model gives Lincoln Red Imps a 12% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Midtjylland 69%. Lincoln Red Imps's chance of going through is 7% now: a win would take it to 24%, a defeat to 3%. Midtjylland's chance of going through is 90% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 71%. The most likely score is 0–2 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLincoln Red Imps: top 8Lincoln Red Imps: throughMidtjylland: top 8Midtjylland: through
Now<1%7%32%90%
Lincoln Red Imps win1%24%9%71%
Draw<1%8%17%82%
Midtjylland win<1%3%41%95%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.8 – 2.2Expected goals
48%Both teams score
56%3 or more goals
12%Lincoln Red Imps clean sheet
46%Midtjylland clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–212%
0–112%
1–210%
0–39%
1–19%
1–37%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lincoln Red Imps

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LBrann A1–2
  2. MD2Twente H22 October
  3. MD3Hajduk Split H5 November
  4. MD4Egnatia A26 November
  5. MD5Midtjylland H this match10 December
  6. MD6Monaco A17 December

Midtjylland

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DEgnatia A1–1
  2. MD2Sint-Truidense H22 October
  3. MD3Ajax H5 November
  4. MD4Pafos A26 November
  5. MD5Lincoln Red Imps A this match10 December
  6. MD6Hajduk Split H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lincoln Red Imps vs Midtjylland?

The model gives Lincoln Red Imps a 12% chance of winning and Midtjylland 69%, with a draw at 19%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–2 (12%), followed by 0–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in Lincoln Red Imps vs Midtjylland?

The model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance. Expected goals are 0.8 for Lincoln Red Imps and 2.2 for Midtjylland, and the match has 3 or more goals in 56% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lincoln Red Imps?

Lincoln Red Imps's qualification chance is 7% right now. A win would make it 24%, a draw 8% and a defeat 3%.

What does this match mean for Midtjylland?

Midtjylland's qualification chance is 90% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 82% and a defeat 71%.

When is Lincoln Red Imps vs Midtjylland played?

Thursday 10 December, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →