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Iberia Tbilisi vs Crvena Zvezda: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

Iberia Tbilisi33rd, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Crvena Zvezda24th, 0 pts
21%Iberia Tbilisi win
24%Draw
55%Crvena Zvezda win

The model gives Iberia Tbilisi a 21% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Crvena Zvezda 55%. Iberia Tbilisi's chance of going through is 16% now: a win would take it to 37%, a defeat to 8%. Crvena Zvezda's chance of going through is 78% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 55%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeIberia Tbilisi: top 8Iberia Tbilisi: throughCrvena Zvezda: top 8Crvena Zvezda: through
Now<1%16%15%78%
Iberia Tbilisi win2%37%3%55%
Draw<1%15%7%69%
Crvena Zvezda win<1%8%24%91%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.0 – 1.7Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
18%Iberia Tbilisi clean sheet
38%Crvena Zvezda clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Iberia Tbilisi

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LSint-Truidense A0–2
  2. MD2Mjällby H22 October
  3. MD3Copenhagen A5 November
  4. MD4Getafe H26 November
  5. MD5Crvena Zvezda H this match10 December
  6. MD6Jablonec A17 December

Crvena Zvezda

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LLugano A2–3
  2. MD2Copenhagen H22 October
  3. MD3Inter Escaldes H5 November
  4. MD4Gent A26 November
  5. MD5Iberia Tbilisi A this match10 December
  6. MD6Trabzonspor H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Iberia Tbilisi vs Red Star Belgrade?

The model gives Iberia Tbilisi a 21% chance of winning and Crvena Zvezda 55%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Iberia Tbilisi vs Red Star Belgrade?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.0 for Iberia Tbilisi and 1.7 for Crvena Zvezda, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Iberia Tbilisi?

Iberia Tbilisi's qualification chance is 16% right now. A win would make it 37%, a draw 15% and a defeat 8%.

What does this match mean for Crvena Zvezda?

Crvena Zvezda's qualification chance is 78% right now. A win would make it 91%, a draw 69% and a defeat 55%.

When is Iberia Tbilisi vs Crvena Zvezda played?

Thursday 10 December, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →