Riga FC vs Atalanta: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45
The model gives Riga FC a 11% chance of winning, a draw 18% and Atalanta 72%. Riga FC's chance of going through is 48% now: a win would take it to 80%, a defeat to 41%. Atalanta's top-8 chance is 90% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 70%. The most likely score is 0–2 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Riga FC: top 8 | Riga FC: through | Atalanta: top 8 | Atalanta: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 3% | 48% | 90% | >99% |
| Riga FC win | 15% | 80% | 70% | 99% |
| Draw | 4% | 57% | 81% | >99% |
| Atalanta win | 1% | 41% | 95% | 100% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Riga FC
- MD1DKairat Almaty H1–1
- MD2Pafos A22 October
- MD3Jablonec H5 November
- MD4Kauno Žalgiris A26 November
- MD5Atalanta H this match10 December
- MD6Borac A17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Riga FC vs Atalanta?
The model gives Riga FC a 11% chance of winning and Atalanta 72%, with a draw at 18%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 0–2 (13%), followed by 0–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in Riga FC vs Atalanta?
The model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance. Expected goals are 0.7 for Riga FC and 2.3 for Atalanta, and the match has 3 or more goals in 58% of cases.
What does this match mean for Riga FC?
Riga FC's qualification chance is 48% right now. A win would make it 80%, a draw 57% and a defeat 41%.
What does this match mean for Atalanta?
Atalanta's top-8 chance is 90% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 81% and a defeat 70%.
When is Riga FC vs Atalanta played?
Thursday 10 December, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 5).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Universitatea Craiova
- Copenhagen – Lugano
- Iberia Tbilisi – Crvena Zvezda
- Getafe – Inter Escaldes
- KuPS Kuopio – CSKA Sofia
- Lincoln Red Imps – Midtjylland
- Freiburg – Panathinaikos
- Brann – Braga
- Trabzonspor – Jablonec
- Aarhus – Twente
- Brighton – Monaco
- Thun – Gent
- Hearts – Borac
- Hajduk Split – Nordsjælland
- Sint-Truidense – Ajax
- Egnatia – Kauno Žalgiris
- Mjällby – Pafos