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Brann vs Braga: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

Brann11th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Braga35th, 0 pts
33%Brann win
26%Draw
41%Braga win

The model gives Brann a 33% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Braga 41%. Brann's chance of going through is 83% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 71%. Braga's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 67%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBrann: top 8Brann: throughBraga: top 8Braga: through
Now22%83%20%82%
Brann win41%96%6%67%
Draw17%84%12%81%
Braga win10%71%37%94%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.4Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
25%Brann clean sheet
30%Braga clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Brann

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WLincoln Red Imps H2–1
  2. MD2Kauno Žalgiris A22 October
  3. MD3Sint-Truidense A5 November
  4. MD4Aarhus H26 November
  5. MD5Braga H this match10 December
  6. MD6Gent A17 December

Braga

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LCopenhagen A0–3
  2. MD2Gent H22 October
  3. MD3Aarhus A5 November
  4. MD4KuPS Kuopio H26 November
  5. MD5Brann A this match10 December
  6. MD6Egnatia H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Brann vs Braga?

The model gives Brann a 33% chance of winning and Braga 41%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Brann vs Braga?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Brann and 1.4 for Braga, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Brann?

Brann's qualification chance is 83% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 84% and a defeat 71%.

What does this match mean for Braga?

Braga's qualification chance is 82% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 81% and a defeat 67%.

When is Brann vs Braga played?

Thursday 10 December, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →