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Thun vs Hearts: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Thun29th, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Hearts20th, 1 pt
38%Thun win
26%Draw
36%Hearts win

The model gives Thun a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Hearts 36%. Thun's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 60%, a defeat to 19%. Hearts's chance of going through is 63% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 44%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeThun: top 8Thun: throughHearts: top 8Hearts: through
Now2%38%8%63%
Thun win6%60%2%44%
Draw1%31%5%59%
Hearts win<1%19%16%85%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
28%Thun clean sheet
27%Hearts clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Thun

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LTwente A0–1
  2. MD2Hajduk Split H22 October
  3. MD3Hearts H this match5 November
  4. MD4Ajax A26 November
  5. MD5Gent H10 December
  6. MD6CSKA Sofia A17 December

Hearts

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DNordsjælland H1–1
  2. MD2Trabzonspor A22 October
  3. MD3Thun A this match5 November
  4. MD4Monaco H26 November
  5. MD5Borac H10 December
  6. MD6Pafos A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Thun vs Hearts?

The model gives Thun a 38% chance of winning and Hearts 36%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Thun vs Hearts?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Thun and 1.3 for Hearts, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Thun?

Thun's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 60%, a draw 31% and a defeat 19%.

What does this match mean for Hearts?

Hearts's qualification chance is 63% right now. A win would make it 85%, a draw 59% and a defeat 44%.

When is Thun vs Hearts played?

Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →