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Getafe vs Inter Escaldes: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

Getafe17th, 1 pt
–Matchday 5
Inter Escaldes34th, 0 pts
82%Getafe win
12%Draw
6%Inter Escaldes win

The model gives Getafe a 82% chance of winning, a draw 12% and Inter Escaldes 6%. Getafe's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 64%. Inter Escaldes's chance of going through is 6% now: a win would take it to 27%, a defeat to 4%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeGetafe: top 8Getafe: throughInter Escaldes: top 8Inter Escaldes: through
Now31%91%<1%6%
Getafe win35%95%<1%4%
Draw13%78%<1%10%
Inter Escaldes win6%64%<1%27%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.7 – 0.6Expected goals
43%Both teams score
65%3 or more goals
54%Getafe clean sheet
6%Inter Escaldes clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
3–012%
1–010%
4–08%
2–18%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Getafe

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DUniversitatea Craiova A1–1
  2. MD2Lugano H22 October
  3. MD3Brighton H5 November
  4. MD4Iberia Tbilisi A26 November
  5. MD5Inter Escaldes H this match10 December
  6. MD6Ajax A17 December

Inter Escaldes

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LMjällby A0–2
  2. MD2Universitatea Craiova H22 October
  3. MD3Crvena Zvezda A5 November
  4. MD4Copenhagen H26 November
  5. MD5Getafe A this match10 December
  6. MD6Aarhus H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Getafe vs Inter Escaldes?

The model gives Getafe a 82% chance of winning and Inter Escaldes 6%, with a draw at 12%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 3–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Getafe vs Inter Escaldes?

The model gives both teams scoring a 43% chance. Expected goals are 2.7 for Getafe and 0.6 for Inter Escaldes, and the match has 3 or more goals in 65% of cases.

What does this match mean for Getafe?

Getafe's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 78% and a defeat 64%.

What does this match mean for Inter Escaldes?

Inter Escaldes's qualification chance is 6% right now. A win would make it 27%, a draw 10% and a defeat 4%.

When is Getafe vs Inter Escaldes played?

Thursday 10 December, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 5).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 5 fixtures

Full matchday 5: what every team needs →