Sint-Truidense vs Ajax: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00
The model gives Sint-Truidense a 30% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Ajax 44%. Sint-Truidense's chance of going through is 80% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 68%. Ajax's chance of going through is 69% now: a win would take it to 87%, a defeat to 48%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Sint-Truidense: top 8 | Sint-Truidense: through | Ajax: top 8 | Ajax: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 19% | 80% | 11% | 69% |
| Sint-Truidense win | 38% | 96% | 2% | 48% |
| Draw | 15% | 82% | 5% | 64% |
| Ajax win | 8% | 68% | 20% | 87% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Sint-Truidense
- MD1WIberia Tbilisi H2–0
- MD2Midtjylland A22 October
- MD3Brann H5 November
- MD4Hajduk Split A26 November
- MD5Ajax H this match10 December
- MD6Lugano A17 December
Ajax
- MD1LHajduk Split A1–2
- MD2Atalanta H22 October
- MD3Midtjylland A5 November
- MD4Thun H26 November
- MD5Sint-Truidense A this match10 December
- MD6Getafe H17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Sint-Truidense vs Ajax?
The model gives Sint-Truidense a 30% chance of winning and Ajax 44%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in Sint-Truidense vs Ajax?
The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sint-Truidense and 1.4 for Ajax, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.
What does this match mean for Sint-Truidense?
Sint-Truidense's qualification chance is 80% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 82% and a defeat 68%.
What does this match mean for Ajax?
Ajax's qualification chance is 69% right now. A win would make it 87%, a draw 64% and a defeat 48%.
When is Sint-Truidense vs Ajax played?
Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 5).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Universitatea Craiova
- Copenhagen – Lugano
- Iberia Tbilisi – Crvena Zvezda
- Getafe – Inter Escaldes
- KuPS Kuopio – CSKA Sofia
- Lincoln Red Imps – Midtjylland
- Riga FC – Atalanta
- Freiburg – Panathinaikos
- Brann – Braga
- Trabzonspor – Jablonec
- Aarhus – Twente
- Brighton – Monaco
- Thun – Gent
- Hearts – Borac
- Hajduk Split – Nordsjælland
- Egnatia – Kauno Žalgiris
- Mjällby – Pafos