Mjällby vs Pafos: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00
The model gives Mjällby a 44% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Pafos 30%. Mjällby's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 75%. Pafos's chance of going through is 50% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 33%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Mjällby: top 8 | Mjällby: through | Pafos: top 8 | Pafos: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 27% | 88% | 5% | 50% |
| Mjällby win | 44% | 98% | 1% | 33% |
| Draw | 18% | 88% | 3% | 49% |
| Pafos win | 9% | 75% | 12% | 75% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Mjällby
- MD1WInter Escaldes H2–0
- MD2Iberia Tbilisi A22 October
- MD3Borac H5 November
- MD4Kairat Almaty A26 November
- MD5Pafos H this match10 December
- MD6Atalanta A17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Mjällby vs Pafos?
The model gives Mjällby a 44% chance of winning and Pafos 30%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).
Will both teams score in Mjällby vs Pafos?
The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Mjällby and 1.2 for Pafos, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.
What does this match mean for Mjällby?
Mjällby's qualification chance is 88% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 88% and a defeat 75%.
What does this match mean for Pafos?
Pafos's qualification chance is 50% right now. A win would make it 75%, a draw 49% and a defeat 33%.
When is Mjällby vs Pafos played?
Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 5).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Universitatea Craiova
- Copenhagen – Lugano
- Iberia Tbilisi – Crvena Zvezda
- Getafe – Inter Escaldes
- KuPS Kuopio – CSKA Sofia
- Lincoln Red Imps – Midtjylland
- Riga FC – Atalanta
- Freiburg – Panathinaikos
- Brann – Braga
- Trabzonspor – Jablonec
- Aarhus – Twente
- Brighton – Monaco
- Thun – Gent
- Hearts – Borac
- Hajduk Split – Nordsjælland
- Sint-Truidense – Ajax
- Egnatia – Kauno Žalgiris