Egnatia vs Kauno Žalgiris: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00
The model gives Egnatia a 39% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Kauno Žalgiris 34%. Egnatia's chance of going through is 46% now: a win would take it to 72%, a defeat to 23%. Kauno Žalgiris's chance of going through is 32% now: a win would take it to 54%, a defeat to 15%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Egnatia: top 8 | Egnatia: through | Kauno Žalgiris: top 8 | Kauno Žalgiris: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 3% | 46% | 2% | 32% |
| Egnatia win | 6% | 72% | <1% | 15% |
| Draw | 1% | 36% | 1% | 28% |
| Kauno Žalgiris win | <1% | 23% | 4% | 54% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Egnatia
- MD1DMidtjylland H1–1
- MD2Aarhus A22 October
- MD3Universitatea Craiova A5 November
- MD4Lincoln Red Imps H26 November
- MD5Kauno Žalgiris H this match10 December
- MD6Braga A17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Egnatia vs Kauno Žalgiris?
The model gives Egnatia a 39% chance of winning and Kauno Žalgiris 34%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).
Will both teams score in Egnatia vs Kauno Žalgiris?
The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Egnatia and 1.2 for Kauno Žalgiris, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.
What does this match mean for Egnatia?
Egnatia's qualification chance is 46% right now. A win would make it 72%, a draw 36% and a defeat 23%.
What does this match mean for Kauno Žalgiris?
Kauno Žalgiris's qualification chance is 32% right now. A win would make it 54%, a draw 28% and a defeat 15%.
When is Egnatia vs Kauno Žalgiris played?
Thursday 10 December, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 5).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Universitatea Craiova
- Copenhagen – Lugano
- Iberia Tbilisi – Crvena Zvezda
- Getafe – Inter Escaldes
- KuPS Kuopio – CSKA Sofia
- Lincoln Red Imps – Midtjylland
- Riga FC – Atalanta
- Freiburg – Panathinaikos
- Brann – Braga
- Trabzonspor – Jablonec
- Aarhus – Twente
- Brighton – Monaco
- Thun – Gent
- Hearts – Borac
- Hajduk Split – Nordsjælland
- Sint-Truidense – Ajax
- Mjällby – Pafos