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Brighton vs Universitatea Craiova: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

Brighton1st, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Universitatea Craiova19th, 1 pt
73%Brighton win
17%Draw
10%Universitatea Craiova win

The model gives Brighton a 73% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Universitatea Craiova 10%. Brighton's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 93%. Universitatea Craiova's chance of going through is 68% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 62%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBrighton: top 8Brighton: throughUniversitatea Craiova: top 8Universitatea Craiova: through
Now66%98%9%68%
Brighton win75%>99%5%62%
Draw48%97%12%77%
Universitatea Craiova win34%93%33%93%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.3 – 0.7Expected goals
47%Both teams score
58%3 or more goals
48%Brighton clean sheet
10%Universitatea Craiova clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Brighton

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WKauno Žalgiris H4–0
  2. MD2Jablonec A22 October
  3. MD3Getafe A5 November
  4. MD4Universitatea Craiova H this match26 November
  5. MD5Monaco H10 December
  6. MD6Panathinaikos A17 December

Universitatea Craiova

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DGetafe H1–1
  2. MD2Inter Escaldes A22 October
  3. MD3Egnatia H5 November
  4. MD4Brighton A this match26 November
  5. MD5Kairat Almaty A10 December
  6. MD6Copenhagen H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Brighton vs Universitatea Craiova?

The model gives Brighton a 73% chance of winning and Universitatea Craiova 10%, with a draw at 17%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Brighton vs Universitatea Craiova?

The model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance. Expected goals are 2.3 for Brighton and 0.7 for Universitatea Craiova, and the match has 3 or more goals in 58% of cases.

What does this match mean for Brighton?

Brighton's qualification chance is 98% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 97% and a defeat 93%.

What does this match mean for Universitatea Craiova?

Universitatea Craiova's qualification chance is 68% right now. A win would make it 93%, a draw 77% and a defeat 62%.

When is Brighton vs Universitatea Craiova played?

Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →