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Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00

Panathinaikos10th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
CSKA Sofia28th, 0 pts
55%Panathinaikos win
24%Draw
21%CSKA Sofia win

The model gives Panathinaikos a 55% chance of winning, a draw 24% and CSKA Sofia 21%. Panathinaikos's chance of going through is 85% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 64%. CSKA Sofia's chance of going through is 43% now: a win would take it to 73%, a defeat to 31%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomePanathinaikos: top 8Panathinaikos: throughCSKA Sofia: top 8CSKA Sofia: through
Now23%85%3%43%
Panathinaikos win33%95%1%31%
Draw12%79%3%45%
CSKA Sofia win7%64%10%73%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.7 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
38%Panathinaikos clean sheet
18%CSKA Sofia clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Panathinaikos

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WBorac H2–1
  2. MD2Kairat Almaty A22 October
  3. MD3CSKA Sofia H this match5 November
  4. MD4Nordsjælland A26 November
  5. MD5Freiburg A10 December
  6. MD6Brighton H17 December

CSKA Sofia

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LMonaco H1–2
  2. MD2Nordsjælland A22 October
  3. MD3Panathinaikos A this match5 November
  4. MD4Trabzonspor H26 November
  5. MD5KuPS Kuopio A10 December
  6. MD6Thun H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia?

The model gives Panathinaikos a 55% chance of winning and CSKA Sofia 21%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Panathinaikos and 1.0 for CSKA Sofia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Panathinaikos?

Panathinaikos's qualification chance is 85% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 79% and a defeat 64%.

What does this match mean for CSKA Sofia?

CSKA Sofia's qualification chance is 43% right now. A win would make it 73%, a draw 45% and a defeat 31%.

When is Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia played?

Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →