Knockout Math
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Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 1 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00

BrightonLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 1
Kauno ŽalgirisLeague phase not started yet
79%Brighton win
14%Draw
7%Kauno Žalgiris win

The model gives Brighton a 79% chance of winning, a draw 14% and Kauno Žalgiris 7%. Brighton's chance of going through is 96% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 84%. Kauno Žalgiris's chance of going through is 40% now: a win would take it to 73%, a defeat to 35%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Brighton: top 8Brighton: throughKauno Žalgiris: top 8Kauno Žalgiris: through
Now58%96%4%40%
Brighton win65%98%2%35%
Draw38%91%5%49%
Kauno Žalgiris win27%84%16%73%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
3–011%
1–010%
2–19%
4–07%
3–17%

Other matchday 1 fixtures