Knockout Math
Live
EN

Getafe vs Brighton: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00

Getafe17th, 1 pt
–Matchday 3
Brighton1st, 3 pts
32%Getafe win
26%Draw
41%Brighton win

The model gives Getafe a 32% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Brighton 41%. Getafe's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 85%. Brighton's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 97%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeGetafe: top 8Getafe: throughBrighton: top 8Brighton: through
Now31%91%66%98%
Getafe win57%99%46%97%
Draw28%92%62%98%
Brighton win13%85%84%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.4Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
25%Getafe clean sheet
30%Brighton clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Getafe

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DUniversitatea Craiova A1–1
  2. MD2Lugano H22 October
  3. MD3Brighton H this match5 November
  4. MD4Iberia Tbilisi A26 November
  5. MD5Inter Escaldes H10 December
  6. MD6Ajax A17 December

Brighton

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WKauno Žalgiris H4–0
  2. MD2Jablonec A22 October
  3. MD3Getafe A this match5 November
  4. MD4Universitatea Craiova H26 November
  5. MD5Monaco H10 December
  6. MD6Panathinaikos A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Getafe vs Brighton?

The model gives Getafe a 32% chance of winning and Brighton 41%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Getafe vs Brighton?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Getafe and 1.4 for Brighton, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Getafe?

Getafe's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 92% and a defeat 85%.

What does this match mean for Brighton?

Brighton's qualification chance is 98% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 97%.

When is Getafe vs Brighton played?

Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →