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Nordsjælland vs Panathinaikos: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00

Nordsjælland16th, 1 pt
–Matchday 4
Panathinaikos10th, 3 pts
41%Nordsjælland win
26%Draw
33%Panathinaikos win

The model gives Nordsjælland a 41% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Panathinaikos 33%. Nordsjælland's chance of going through is 72% now: a win would take it to 89%, a defeat to 54%. Panathinaikos's chance of going through is 85% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 73%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeNordsjælland: top 8Nordsjælland: throughPanathinaikos: top 8Panathinaikos: through
Now11%72%23%85%
Nordsjælland win22%89%10%73%
Draw7%67%18%86%
Panathinaikos win2%54%41%97%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.4 – 1.2Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
30%Nordsjælland clean sheet
25%Panathinaikos clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Nordsjælland

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DHearts A1–1
  2. MD2CSKA Sofia H22 October
  3. MD3Monaco A5 November
  4. MD4Panathinaikos H this match26 November
  5. MD5Hajduk Split A10 December
  6. MD6KuPS Kuopio H17 December

Panathinaikos

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WBorac H2–1
  2. MD2Kairat Almaty A22 October
  3. MD3CSKA Sofia H5 November
  4. MD4Nordsjælland A this match26 November
  5. MD5Freiburg A10 December
  6. MD6Brighton H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Nordsjælland vs Panathinaikos?

The model gives Nordsjælland a 41% chance of winning and Panathinaikos 33%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Nordsjælland vs Panathinaikos?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Nordsjælland and 1.2 for Panathinaikos, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Nordsjælland?

Nordsjælland's qualification chance is 72% right now. A win would make it 89%, a draw 67% and a defeat 54%.

What does this match mean for Panathinaikos?

Panathinaikos's qualification chance is 85% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 86% and a defeat 73%.

When is Nordsjælland vs Panathinaikos played?

Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →