Freiburg 3–2 Jablonec
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 1 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00
Freiburg beat Jablonec 3–2 at home on matchday 1. After the match, Freiburg are 7th with 3 points, with a 97% chance of going through (top 8: 56%). Jablonec are now 23rd with 0 points, with a 44% chance of going through (top 8: 3%).
Before kick-off
What the model expected, based on team ratings before matchday 1.
The outcome the model rated most likely (72%). The model's most likely score was 2–0 (13%); the actual score had a 3% chance. Expected goals before the match: Freiburg 2.3, Jablonec 0.7.
Chances before and now
Before matchday 1 compared with now, after all results so far.
| Team | Through (top 24) | Top 8 |
|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 94% → 97% | 52% → 56% |
| Jablonec | 50% → 44% | 6% → 3% |
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Freiburg
- MD1WJablonec H this match3–2
- MD2Monaco A22 October
- MD3Trabzonspor A5 November
- MD4Twente H26 November
- MD5Panathinaikos H10 December
- MD6Kauno Žalgiris A17 December
Jablonec
- MD1LFreiburg A this match2–3
- MD2Brighton H22 October
- MD3Riga FC A5 November
- MD4Lugano H26 November
- MD5Trabzonspor A10 December
- MD6Iberia Tbilisi H17 December
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Freiburg vs Jablonec?
The match finished 3–2 (Conference League, matchday 1).
Was Freiburg vs Jablonec a surprise?
Before kick-off the model gave Freiburg a 72% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Jablonec 11%. The outcome the model rated most likely (72%). The model's most likely score was 2–0 (13%); the actual score had a 3% chance.
How did the result change Freiburg's chances?
Before matchday 1, Freiburg had a 94% chance of going through (top 8: 52%). Now it is 97% (top 8: 56%).
How did the result change Jablonec's chances?
Before matchday 1, Jablonec had a 50% chance of going through (top 8: 6%). Now it is 44% (top 8: 3%).
When was Freiburg vs Jablonec played?
Thursday 15 October, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 1).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 1 fixtures
- Lugano – Crvena Zvezda (3–2)
- Hajduk Split – Ajax (2–1)
- Gent – Aarhus (1–0)
- Egnatia – Midtjylland (1–1)
- KuPS Kuopio – Trabzonspor (2–4)
- Mjällby – Inter Escaldes (2–0)
- Panathinaikos – Borac (2–1)
- CSKA Sofia – Monaco (1–2)
- Riga FC – Kairat Almaty (1–1)
- Universitatea Craiova – Getafe (1–1)
- Atalanta – Pafos (3–1)
- Brighton – Kauno Žalgiris (4–0)
- Copenhagen – Braga (3–0)
- Twente – Thun (1–0)
- Hearts – Nordsjælland (1–1)
- Sint-Truidense – Iberia Tbilisi (2–0)
- Brann – Lincoln Red Imps (2–1)