Copenhagen vs Iberia Tbilisi: what's at stake in the Conference League?

Q: Who is favourite in FC Copenhagen vs Iberia Tbilisi?

The model gives Copenhagen a 75% chance of winning and Iberia Tbilisi 9%, with a draw at 16%.

Q: What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Q: Will both teams score in FC Copenhagen vs Iberia Tbilisi?

The model gives both teams scoring a 46% chance. Expected goals are 2.4 for Copenhagen and 0.7 for Iberia Tbilisi, and the match has 3 or more goals in 59% of cases.

Q: What does this match mean for Copenhagen?

Copenhagen's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 97% and a defeat 94%.

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00

Copenhagen2nd, 3 pts

–Matchday 3

Iberia Tbilisi33rd, 0 pts

75%Copenhagen win

16%Draw

9%Iberia Tbilisi win

The model gives Copenhagen a 75% chance of winning, a draw 16% and Iberia Tbilisi 9%. Copenhagen's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 94%. Iberia Tbilisi's chance of going through is 16% now: a win would take it to 45%, a defeat to 11%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Outcome	Copenhagen: top 8	Copenhagen: through	Iberia Tbilisi: top 8	Iberia Tbilisi: through
Now	69%	99%	<1%	16%
Copenhagen win	77%	>99%	<1%	11%
Draw	50%	97%	<1%	20%
Iberia Tbilisi win	36%	94%	3%	45%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.4 – 0.7Expected goals

46%Both teams score

59%3 or more goals

50%Copenhagen clean sheet

9%Iberia Tbilisi clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%

1–011%

3–010%

2–19%

1–18%

3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Copenhagen

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +3

MD1WBraga H3–0
MD2Crvena Zvezda A22 October
MD3Iberia Tbilisi H this match5 November
MD4Inter Escaldes A26 November
MD5Lugano H10 December
MD6Universitatea Craiova A17 December

Iberia Tbilisi

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -2

MD1LSint-Truidense A0–2
MD2Mjällby H22 October
MD3Copenhagen A this match5 November
MD4Getafe H26 November
MD5Crvena Zvezda H10 December
MD6Jablonec A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in FC Copenhagen vs Iberia Tbilisi?

The model gives Copenhagen a 75% chance of winning and Iberia Tbilisi 9%, with a draw at 16%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in FC Copenhagen vs Iberia Tbilisi?

The model gives both teams scoring a 46% chance. Expected goals are 2.4 for Copenhagen and 0.7 for Iberia Tbilisi, and the match has 3 or more goals in 59% of cases.

What does this match mean for Copenhagen?

Copenhagen's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 97% and a defeat 94%.

What does this match mean for Iberia Tbilisi?

Iberia Tbilisi's qualification chance is 16% right now. A win would make it 45%, a draw 20% and a defeat 11%.

When is Copenhagen vs Iberia Tbilisi played?

Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →