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Iberia Tbilisi vs Getafe: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

Iberia Tbilisi33rd, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Getafe17th, 1 pt
17%Iberia Tbilisi win
22%Draw
62%Getafe win

The model gives Iberia Tbilisi a 17% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Getafe 62%. Iberia Tbilisi's chance of going through is 16% now: a win would take it to 40%, a defeat to 9%. Getafe's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 75%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeIberia Tbilisi: top 8Iberia Tbilisi: throughGetafe: top 8Getafe: through
Now<1%16%31%91%
Iberia Tbilisi win2%40%8%75%
Draw<1%18%17%85%
Getafe win<1%9%42%97%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
53%3 or more goals
15%Iberia Tbilisi clean sheet
42%Getafe clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Iberia Tbilisi

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LSint-Truidense A0–2
  2. MD2Mjällby H22 October
  3. MD3Copenhagen A5 November
  4. MD4Getafe H this match26 November
  5. MD5Crvena Zvezda H10 December
  6. MD6Jablonec A17 December

Getafe

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DUniversitatea Craiova A1–1
  2. MD2Lugano H22 October
  3. MD3Brighton H5 November
  4. MD4Iberia Tbilisi A this match26 November
  5. MD5Inter Escaldes H10 December
  6. MD6Ajax A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Iberia Tbilisi vs Getafe?

The model gives Iberia Tbilisi a 17% chance of winning and Getafe 62%, with a draw at 22%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 0–2 (11%).

Will both teams score in Iberia Tbilisi vs Getafe?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Iberia Tbilisi and 1.9 for Getafe, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.

What does this match mean for Iberia Tbilisi?

Iberia Tbilisi's qualification chance is 16% right now. A win would make it 40%, a draw 18% and a defeat 9%.

What does this match mean for Getafe?

Getafe's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 85% and a defeat 75%.

When is Iberia Tbilisi vs Getafe played?

Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →