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Riga FC vs Jablonec: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00

Riga FC21st, 1 pt
–Matchday 3
Jablonec23rd, 0 pts
40%Riga FC win
26%Draw
33%Jablonec win

The model gives Riga FC a 40% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Jablonec 33%. Riga FC's chance of going through is 48% now: a win would take it to 71%, a defeat to 26%. Jablonec's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 70%, a defeat to 25%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeRiga FC: top 8Riga FC: throughJablonec: top 8Jablonec: through
Now3%48%3%44%
Riga FC win7%71%1%25%
Draw2%40%1%41%
Jablonec win<1%26%8%70%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.4 – 1.2Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
29%Riga FC clean sheet
26%Jablonec clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Riga FC

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DKairat Almaty H1–1
  2. MD2Pafos A22 October
  3. MD3Jablonec H this match5 November
  4. MD4Kauno Žalgiris A26 November
  5. MD5Atalanta H10 December
  6. MD6Borac A17 December

Jablonec

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LFreiburg A2–3
  2. MD2Brighton H22 October
  3. MD3Riga FC A this match5 November
  4. MD4Lugano H26 November
  5. MD5Trabzonspor A10 December
  6. MD6Iberia Tbilisi H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Riga FC vs Jablonec?

The model gives Riga FC a 40% chance of winning and Jablonec 33%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Riga FC vs Jablonec?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Riga FC and 1.2 for Jablonec, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Riga FC?

Riga FC's qualification chance is 48% right now. A win would make it 71%, a draw 40% and a defeat 26%.

What does this match mean for Jablonec?

Jablonec's qualification chance is 44% right now. A win would make it 70%, a draw 41% and a defeat 25%.

When is Riga FC vs Jablonec played?

Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →