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Jablonec vs Lugano: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

Jablonec23rd, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Lugano8th, 3 pts
37%Jablonec win
26%Draw
37%Lugano win

The model gives Jablonec a 37% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Lugano 37%. Jablonec's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 68%, a defeat to 24%. Lugano's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 73%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeJablonec: top 8Jablonec: throughLugano: top 8Lugano: through
Now3%44%23%86%
Jablonec win7%68%10%73%
Draw1%39%16%87%
Lugano win<1%24%42%97%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
28%Jablonec clean sheet
27%Lugano clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Jablonec

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LFreiburg A2–3
  2. MD2Brighton H22 October
  3. MD3Riga FC A5 November
  4. MD4Lugano H this match26 November
  5. MD5Trabzonspor A10 December
  6. MD6Iberia Tbilisi H17 December

Lugano

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WCrvena Zvezda H3–2
  2. MD2Getafe A22 October
  3. MD3Kauno Žalgiris H5 November
  4. MD4Jablonec A this match26 November
  5. MD5Copenhagen A10 December
  6. MD6Sint-Truidense H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Jablonec vs Lugano?

The model gives Jablonec a 37% chance of winning and Lugano 37%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Jablonec vs Lugano?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Jablonec and 1.3 for Lugano, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Jablonec?

Jablonec's qualification chance is 44% right now. A win would make it 68%, a draw 39% and a defeat 24%.

What does this match mean for Lugano?

Lugano's qualification chance is 86% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 87% and a defeat 73%.

When is Jablonec vs Lugano played?

Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →