Jablonec vs Lugano: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45
JablonecLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 4
LuganoLeague phase not started yet
38%Jablonec win
26%Draw
35%Lugano win
The model gives Jablonec a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Lugano 35%. Jablonec's chance of going through is 50% now: a win would take it to 73%, a defeat to 30%. Lugano's chance of going through is 65% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 49%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Jablonec: top 8 | Jablonec: through | Lugano: top 8 | Lugano: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 6% | 50% | 13% | 65% |
| Jablonec win | 12% | 73% | 5% | 49% |
| Draw | 3% | 45% | 9% | 62% |
| Lugano win | 1% | 30% | 25% | 86% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Mjällby
- Ajax – Thun
- Brighton – Universitatea Craiova
- Iberia Tbilisi – Getafe
- Kauno Žalgiris – Riga FC
- Hearts – Monaco
- Egnatia – Lincoln Red Imps
- Pafos – Midtjylland
- Brann – Aarhus
- Nordsjælland – Panathinaikos
- Borac – Atalanta
- Hajduk Split – Sint-Truidense
- Inter Escaldes – Copenhagen
- Gent – Crvena Zvezda
- CSKA Sofia – Trabzonspor
- Braga – KuPS Kuopio
- Freiburg – Twente