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Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Escaldes: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Crvena Zvezda24th, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Inter Escaldes34th, 0 pts
76%Crvena Zvezda win
15%Draw
8%Inter Escaldes win

The model gives Crvena Zvezda a 76% chance of winning, a draw 15% and Inter Escaldes 8%. Crvena Zvezda's chance of going through is 78% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 46%. Inter Escaldes's chance of going through is 6% now: a win would take it to 27%, a defeat to 4%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeCrvena Zvezda: top 8Crvena Zvezda: throughInter Escaldes: top 8Inter Escaldes: through
Now15%78%<1%6%
Crvena Zvezda win19%85%<1%4%
Draw5%61%<1%9%
Inter Escaldes win2%46%1%27%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.5 – 0.7Expected goals
45%Both teams score
61%3 or more goals
51%Crvena Zvezda clean sheet
9%Inter Escaldes clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
3–011%
1–011%
2–19%
3–17%
1–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Crvena Zvezda

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LLugano A2–3
  2. MD2Copenhagen H22 October
  3. MD3Inter Escaldes H this match5 November
  4. MD4Gent A26 November
  5. MD5Iberia Tbilisi A10 December
  6. MD6Trabzonspor H17 December

Inter Escaldes

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LMjällby A0–2
  2. MD2Universitatea Craiova H22 October
  3. MD3Crvena Zvezda A this match5 November
  4. MD4Copenhagen H26 November
  5. MD5Getafe A10 December
  6. MD6Aarhus H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Red Star Belgrade vs Inter Escaldes?

The model gives Crvena Zvezda a 76% chance of winning and Inter Escaldes 8%, with a draw at 15%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (13%), followed by 3–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Red Star Belgrade vs Inter Escaldes?

The model gives both teams scoring a 45% chance. Expected goals are 2.5 for Crvena Zvezda and 0.7 for Inter Escaldes, and the match has 3 or more goals in 61% of cases.

What does this match mean for Crvena Zvezda?

Crvena Zvezda's qualification chance is 78% right now. A win would make it 85%, a draw 61% and a defeat 46%.

What does this match mean for Inter Escaldes?

Inter Escaldes's qualification chance is 6% right now. A win would make it 27%, a draw 9% and a defeat 4%.

When is Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Escaldes played?

Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →