Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 1 · Thursday 15 October, 18:45
LuganoLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 1
Crvena ZvezdaLeague phase not started yet
36%Lugano win
26%Draw
38%Crvena Zvezda win
The model gives Lugano a 36% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Crvena Zvezda 38%. Lugano's chance of going through is 65% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 48%. Crvena Zvezda's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 78%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Lugano: top 8 | Lugano: through | Crvena Zvezda: top 8 | Crvena Zvezda: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 13% | 65% | 35% | 88% |
| Lugano win | 25% | 84% | 18% | 78% |
| Draw | 10% | 64% | 30% | 87% |
| Crvena Zvezda win | 4% | 48% | 55% | 97% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
Other matchday 1 fixtures
- Hajduk Split – Ajax
- Gent – Aarhus
- Egnatia – Midtjylland
- KuPS Kuopio – Trabzonspor
- Mjällby – Inter Escaldes
- Panathinaikos – Borac
- CSKA Sofia – Monaco
- Riga FC – Kairat Almaty
- Universitatea Craiova – Getafe
- Atalanta – Pafos
- Brighton – Kauno Žalgiris
- Copenhagen – Braga
- Twente – Thun
- Hearts – Nordsjælland
- Sint-Truidense – Iberia Tbilisi
- Freiburg – Jablonec
- Brann – Lincoln Red Imps