Lugano 3–2 Crvena Zvezda
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 1 · Thursday 15 October, 18:45
Lugano beat Crvena Zvezda 3–2 at home on matchday 1. After the match, Lugano are 8th with 3 points, with a 86% chance of going through (top 8: 23%). Crvena Zvezda are now 24th with 0 points, with a 78% chance of going through (top 8: 15%).
Before kick-off
What the model expected, based on team ratings before matchday 1.
Not the most likely outcome, but no big surprise either: the model gave it 36%. The model's most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the actual score had a 2% chance. Expected goals before the match: Lugano 1.3, Crvena Zvezda 1.3.
Chances before and now
Before matchday 1 compared with now, after all results so far.
| Team | Through (top 24) | Top 8 |
|---|---|---|
| Lugano | 65% → 86% | 13% → 23% |
| Crvena Zvezda | 87% → 78% | 34% → 15% |
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Lugano
- MD1WCrvena Zvezda H this match3–2
- MD2Getafe A22 October
- MD3Kauno Žalgiris H5 November
- MD4Jablonec A26 November
- MD5Copenhagen A10 December
- MD6Sint-Truidense H17 December
Crvena Zvezda
- MD1LLugano A this match2–3
- MD2Copenhagen H22 October
- MD3Inter Escaldes H5 November
- MD4Gent A26 November
- MD5Iberia Tbilisi A10 December
- MD6Trabzonspor H17 December
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda?
The match finished 3–2 (Conference League, matchday 1).
Was Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade a surprise?
Before kick-off the model gave Lugano a 36% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Crvena Zvezda 38%. Not the most likely outcome, but no big surprise either: the model gave it 36%. The model's most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the actual score had a 2% chance.
How did the result change Lugano's chances?
Before matchday 1, Lugano had a 65% chance of going through (top 8: 13%). Now it is 86% (top 8: 23%).
How did the result change Crvena Zvezda's chances?
Before matchday 1, Crvena Zvezda had a 87% chance of going through (top 8: 34%). Now it is 78% (top 8: 15%).
When was Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda played?
Thursday 15 October, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 1).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 1 fixtures
- Hajduk Split – Ajax (2–1)
- Gent – Aarhus (1–0)
- Egnatia – Midtjylland (1–1)
- KuPS Kuopio – Trabzonspor (2–4)
- Mjällby – Inter Escaldes (2–0)
- Panathinaikos – Borac (2–1)
- CSKA Sofia – Monaco (1–2)
- Riga FC – Kairat Almaty (1–1)
- Universitatea Craiova – Getafe (1–1)
- Atalanta – Pafos (3–1)
- Brighton – Kauno Žalgiris (4–0)
- Copenhagen – Braga (3–0)
- Twente – Thun (1–0)
- Hearts – Nordsjælland (1–1)
- Sint-Truidense – Iberia Tbilisi (2–0)
- Freiburg – Jablonec (3–2)
- Brann – Lincoln Red Imps (2–1)