Brann vs Aarhus: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45
The model gives Brann a 42% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Aarhus 31%. Brann's chance of going through is 83% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 66%. Aarhus's chance of going through is 72% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 57%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Brann: top 8 | Brann: through | Aarhus: top 8 | Aarhus: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 22% | 83% | 12% | 72% |
| Brann win | 37% | 95% | 3% | 57% |
| Draw | 14% | 81% | 8% | 73% |
| Aarhus win | 8% | 66% | 27% | 91% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Brann
- MD1WLincoln Red Imps H2–1
- MD2Kauno Žalgiris A22 October
- MD3Sint-Truidense A5 November
- MD4Aarhus H this match26 November
- MD5Braga H10 December
- MD6Gent A17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Brann vs Aarhus?
The model gives Brann a 42% chance of winning and Aarhus 31%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).
Will both teams score in Brann vs Aarhus?
The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Brann and 1.2 for Aarhus, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.
What does this match mean for Brann?
Brann's qualification chance is 83% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 81% and a defeat 66%.
What does this match mean for Aarhus?
Aarhus's qualification chance is 72% right now. A win would make it 91%, a draw 73% and a defeat 57%.
When is Brann vs Aarhus played?
Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 4).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Mjällby
- Ajax – Thun
- Brighton – Universitatea Craiova
- Iberia Tbilisi – Getafe
- Jablonec – Lugano
- Kauno Žalgiris – Riga FC
- Hearts – Monaco
- Egnatia – Lincoln Red Imps
- Pafos – Midtjylland
- Nordsjælland – Panathinaikos
- Borac – Atalanta
- Hajduk Split – Sint-Truidense
- Inter Escaldes – Copenhagen
- Gent – Crvena Zvezda
- CSKA Sofia – Trabzonspor
- Braga – KuPS Kuopio
- Freiburg – Twente