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Sint-Truidense vs Brann: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00

Sint-Truidense5th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
Brann11th, 3 pts
45%Sint-Truidense win
26%Draw
29%Brann win

The model gives Sint-Truidense a 45% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Brann 29%. Sint-Truidense's chance of going through is 80% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 61%. Brann's chance of going through is 83% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 72%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSint-Truidense: top 8Sint-Truidense: throughBrann: top 8Brann: through
Now19%80%22%83%
Sint-Truidense win32%94%10%72%
Draw12%78%19%84%
Brann win6%61%42%97%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
32%Sint-Truidense clean sheet
23%Brann clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Sint-Truidense

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WIberia Tbilisi H2–0
  2. MD2Midtjylland A22 October
  3. MD3Brann H this match5 November
  4. MD4Hajduk Split A26 November
  5. MD5Ajax H10 December
  6. MD6Lugano A17 December

Brann

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WLincoln Red Imps H2–1
  2. MD2Kauno Žalgiris A22 October
  3. MD3Sint-Truidense A this match5 November
  4. MD4Aarhus H26 November
  5. MD5Braga H10 December
  6. MD6Gent A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Sint-Truidense vs Brann?

The model gives Sint-Truidense a 45% chance of winning and Brann 29%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Sint-Truidense vs Brann?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sint-Truidense and 1.1 for Brann, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Sint-Truidense?

Sint-Truidense's qualification chance is 80% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 78% and a defeat 61%.

What does this match mean for Brann?

Brann's qualification chance is 83% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 84% and a defeat 72%.

When is Sint-Truidense vs Brann played?

Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →