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Aarhus vs Braga: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Aarhus30th, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Braga35th, 0 pts
34%Aarhus win
26%Draw
39%Braga win

The model gives Aarhus a 34% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Braga 39%. Aarhus's chance of going through is 72% now: a win would take it to 90%, a defeat to 56%. Braga's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 68%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAarhus: top 8Aarhus: throughBraga: top 8Braga: through
Now12%72%20%82%
Aarhus win25%90%7%68%
Draw8%71%13%82%
Braga win3%56%37%94%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
26%Aarhus clean sheet
29%Braga clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Aarhus

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LGent A0–1
  2. MD2Egnatia H22 October
  3. MD3Braga H this match5 November
  4. MD4Brann A26 November
  5. MD5Twente H10 December
  6. MD6Inter Escaldes A17 December

Braga

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LCopenhagen A0–3
  2. MD2Gent H22 October
  3. MD3Aarhus A this match5 November
  4. MD4KuPS Kuopio H26 November
  5. MD5Brann A10 December
  6. MD6Egnatia H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Aarhus vs Braga?

The model gives Aarhus a 34% chance of winning and Braga 39%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Aarhus vs Braga?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Aarhus and 1.3 for Braga, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Aarhus?

Aarhus's qualification chance is 72% right now. A win would make it 90%, a draw 71% and a defeat 56%.

What does this match mean for Braga?

Braga's qualification chance is 82% right now. A win would make it 94%, a draw 82% and a defeat 68%.

When is Aarhus vs Braga played?

Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →