Knockout Math
Live
EN

Braga vs KuPS Kuopio: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00

Braga35th, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
KuPS Kuopio31st, 0 pts
66%Braga win
20%Draw
14%KuPS Kuopio win

The model gives Braga a 66% chance of winning, a draw 20% and KuPS Kuopio 14%. Braga's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 55%. KuPS Kuopio's chance of going through is 31% now: a win would take it to 63%, a defeat to 22%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBraga: top 8Braga: throughKuPS Kuopio: top 8KuPS Kuopio: through
Now20%82%1%31%
Braga win28%91%<1%22%
Draw8%72%1%36%
KuPS Kuopio win4%55%6%63%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.1 – 0.8Expected goals
48%Both teams score
55%3 or more goals
44%Braga clean sheet
13%KuPS Kuopio clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Braga

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LCopenhagen A0–3
  2. MD2Gent H22 October
  3. MD3Aarhus A5 November
  4. MD4KuPS Kuopio H this match26 November
  5. MD5Brann A10 December
  6. MD6Egnatia H17 December

KuPS Kuopio

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LTrabzonspor H2–4
  2. MD2Borac A22 October
  3. MD3Gent H5 November
  4. MD4Braga A this match26 November
  5. MD5CSKA Sofia H10 December
  6. MD6Nordsjælland A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Braga vs KuPS Kuopio?

The model gives Braga a 66% chance of winning and KuPS Kuopio 14%, with a draw at 20%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 2–0 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Braga vs KuPS Kuopio?

The model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance. Expected goals are 2.1 for Braga and 0.8 for KuPS Kuopio, and the match has 3 or more goals in 55% of cases.

What does this match mean for Braga?

Braga's qualification chance is 82% right now. A win would make it 91%, a draw 72% and a defeat 55%.

What does this match mean for KuPS Kuopio?

KuPS Kuopio's qualification chance is 31% right now. A win would make it 63%, a draw 36% and a defeat 22%.

When is Braga vs KuPS Kuopio played?

Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →