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Egnatia vs Lincoln Red Imps: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

Egnatia22nd, 1 pt
–Matchday 4
Lincoln Red Imps25th, 0 pts
56%Egnatia win
24%Draw
21%Lincoln Red Imps win

The model gives Egnatia a 56% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Lincoln Red Imps 21%. Egnatia's chance of going through is 46% now: a win would take it to 63%, a defeat to 19%. Lincoln Red Imps's chance of going through is 7% now: a win would take it to 21%, a defeat to 2%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeEgnatia: top 8Egnatia: throughLincoln Red Imps: top 8Lincoln Red Imps: through
Now3%46%<1%7%
Egnatia win4%63%0%2%
Draw1%30%<1%6%
Lincoln Red Imps win<1%19%<1%21%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.7 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
38%Egnatia clean sheet
17%Lincoln Red Imps clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Egnatia

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DMidtjylland H1–1
  2. MD2Aarhus A22 October
  3. MD3Universitatea Craiova A5 November
  4. MD4Lincoln Red Imps H this match26 November
  5. MD5Kauno Žalgiris H10 December
  6. MD6Braga A17 December

Lincoln Red Imps

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LBrann A1–2
  2. MD2Twente H22 October
  3. MD3Hajduk Split H5 November
  4. MD4Egnatia A this match26 November
  5. MD5Midtjylland H10 December
  6. MD6Monaco A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Egnatia vs Lincoln Red Imps?

The model gives Egnatia a 56% chance of winning and Lincoln Red Imps 21%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Egnatia vs Lincoln Red Imps?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Egnatia and 1.0 for Lincoln Red Imps, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Egnatia?

Egnatia's qualification chance is 46% right now. A win would make it 63%, a draw 30% and a defeat 19%.

What does this match mean for Lincoln Red Imps?

Lincoln Red Imps's qualification chance is 7% right now. A win would make it 21%, a draw 6% and a defeat 2%.

When is Egnatia vs Lincoln Red Imps played?

Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →