Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00
The model gives Universitatea Craiova a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Egnatia 19%. Universitatea Craiova's chance of going through is 68% now: a win would take it to 83%, a defeat to 39%. Egnatia's chance of going through is 46% now: a win would take it to 80%, a defeat to 34%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Universitatea Craiova: top 8 | Universitatea Craiova: through | Egnatia: top 8 | Egnatia: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 9% | 68% | 3% | 46% |
| Universitatea Craiova win | 14% | 83% | 1% | 34% |
| Draw | 4% | 54% | 2% | 50% |
| Egnatia win | 1% | 39% | 10% | 80% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Universitatea Craiova
- MD1DGetafe H1–1
- MD2Inter Escaldes A22 October
- MD3Egnatia H this match5 November
- MD4Brighton A26 November
- MD5Kairat Almaty A10 December
- MD6Copenhagen H17 December
Egnatia
- MD1DMidtjylland H1–1
- MD2Aarhus A22 October
- MD3Universitatea Craiova A this match5 November
- MD4Lincoln Red Imps H26 November
- MD5Kauno Žalgiris H10 December
- MD6Braga A17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia?
The model gives Universitatea Craiova a 58% chance of winning and Egnatia 19%, with a draw at 23%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia?
The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Universitatea Craiova and 0.9 for Egnatia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.
What does this match mean for Universitatea Craiova?
Universitatea Craiova's qualification chance is 68% right now. A win would make it 83%, a draw 54% and a defeat 39%.
What does this match mean for Egnatia?
Egnatia's qualification chance is 46% right now. A win would make it 80%, a draw 50% and a defeat 34%.
When is Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia played?
Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 3).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Aarhus – Braga
- Atalanta – Kairat Almaty
- Midtjylland – Ajax
- Thun – Hearts
- Crvena Zvezda – Inter Escaldes
- KuPS Kuopio – Gent
- Lincoln Red Imps – Hajduk Split
- Mjällby – Borac
- Trabzonspor – Freiburg
- Monaco – Nordsjælland
- Copenhagen – Iberia Tbilisi
- Lugano – Kauno Žalgiris
- Twente – Pafos
- Getafe – Brighton
- Sint-Truidense – Brann
- Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia
- Riga FC – Jablonec