Monaco vs Nordsjælland: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00
The model gives Monaco a 65% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Nordsjælland 15%. Monaco's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 94%. Nordsjælland's chance of going through is 72% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 65%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Monaco: top 8 | Monaco: through | Nordsjælland: top 8 | Nordsjælland: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 65% | 99% | 11% | 72% |
| Monaco win | 78% | >99% | 5% | 65% |
| Draw | 48% | 98% | 14% | 77% |
| Nordsjælland win | 34% | 94% | 34% | 93% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Monaco
- MD1WCSKA Sofia A2–1
- MD2Freiburg H22 October
- MD3Nordsjælland H this match5 November
- MD4Hearts A26 November
- MD5Brighton A10 December
- MD6Lincoln Red Imps H17 December
Nordsjælland
- MD1DHearts A1–1
- MD2CSKA Sofia H22 October
- MD3Monaco A this match5 November
- MD4Panathinaikos H26 November
- MD5Hajduk Split A10 December
- MD6KuPS Kuopio H17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Monaco vs Nordsjælland?
The model gives Monaco a 65% chance of winning and Nordsjælland 15%, with a draw at 21%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 2–0 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Nordsjælland?
The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 2.0 for Monaco and 0.8 for Nordsjælland, and the match has 3 or more goals in 54% of cases.
What does this match mean for Monaco?
Monaco's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 94%.
What does this match mean for Nordsjælland?
Nordsjælland's qualification chance is 72% right now. A win would make it 93%, a draw 77% and a defeat 65%.
When is Monaco vs Nordsjælland played?
Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 3).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Aarhus – Braga
- Atalanta – Kairat Almaty
- Midtjylland – Ajax
- Thun – Hearts
- Crvena Zvezda – Inter Escaldes
- KuPS Kuopio – Gent
- Lincoln Red Imps – Hajduk Split
- Mjällby – Borac
- Trabzonspor – Freiburg
- Copenhagen – Iberia Tbilisi
- Lugano – Kauno Žalgiris
- Twente – Pafos
- Getafe – Brighton
- Sint-Truidense – Brann
- Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia
- Riga FC – Jablonec
- Universitatea Craiova – Egnatia