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Midtjylland vs Ajax: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Midtjylland18th, 1 pt
–Matchday 3
Ajax26th, 0 pts
40%Midtjylland win
26%Draw
34%Ajax win

The model gives Midtjylland a 40% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Ajax 34%. Midtjylland's chance of going through is 90% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 81%. Ajax's chance of going through is 69% now: a win would take it to 89%, a defeat to 53%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeMidtjylland: top 8Midtjylland: throughAjax: top 8Ajax: through
Now32%90%11%69%
Midtjylland win52%98%3%53%
Draw27%89%6%68%
Ajax win14%81%24%89%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.4 – 1.2Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
29%Midtjylland clean sheet
26%Ajax clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Midtjylland

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DEgnatia A1–1
  2. MD2Sint-Truidense H22 October
  3. MD3Ajax H this match5 November
  4. MD4Pafos A26 November
  5. MD5Lincoln Red Imps A10 December
  6. MD6Hajduk Split H17 December

Ajax

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LHajduk Split A1–2
  2. MD2Atalanta H22 October
  3. MD3Midtjylland A this match5 November
  4. MD4Thun H26 November
  5. MD5Sint-Truidense A10 December
  6. MD6Getafe H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Midtjylland vs Ajax?

The model gives Midtjylland a 40% chance of winning and Ajax 34%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Midtjylland vs Ajax?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Midtjylland and 1.2 for Ajax, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Midtjylland?

Midtjylland's qualification chance is 90% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 89% and a defeat 81%.

What does this match mean for Ajax?

Ajax's qualification chance is 69% right now. A win would make it 89%, a draw 68% and a defeat 53%.

When is Midtjylland vs Ajax played?

Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →