Midtjylland vs Ajax: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45
MidtjyllandLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 3
AjaxLeague phase not started yet
38%Midtjylland win
26%Draw
35%Ajax win
The model gives Midtjylland a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Ajax 35%. Midtjylland's chance of going through is 92% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 86%. Ajax's chance of going through is 84% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 74%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Midtjylland: top 8 | Midtjylland: through | Ajax: top 8 | Ajax: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 47% | 92% | 30% | 84% |
| Midtjylland win | 68% | 98% | 15% | 74% |
| Draw | 42% | 92% | 25% | 84% |
| Ajax win | 28% | 86% | 51% | 95% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Aarhus – Braga
- Atalanta – Kairat Almaty
- Thun – Hearts
- Crvena Zvezda – Inter Escaldes
- KuPS Kuopio – Gent
- Lincoln Red Imps – Hajduk Split
- Mjällby – Borac
- Trabzonspor – Freiburg
- Monaco – Nordsjælland
- Copenhagen – Iberia Tbilisi
- Lugano – Kauno Žalgiris
- Twente – Pafos
- Getafe – Brighton
- Sint-Truidense – Brann
- Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia
- Riga FC – Jablonec
- Universitatea Craiova – Egnatia