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Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Lincoln Red Imps25th, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Hajduk Split12th, 3 pts
18%Lincoln Red Imps win
22%Draw
60%Hajduk Split win

The model gives Lincoln Red Imps a 18% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Hajduk Split 60%. Lincoln Red Imps's chance of going through is 7% now: a win would take it to 21%, a defeat to 3%. Hajduk Split's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 76%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLincoln Red Imps: top 8Lincoln Red Imps: throughHajduk Split: top 8Hajduk Split: through
Now<1%7%34%91%
Lincoln Red Imps win<1%21%12%76%
Draw<1%6%20%87%
Hajduk Split win<1%3%46%97%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.8Expected goals
50%Both teams score
52%3 or more goals
16%Lincoln Red Imps clean sheet
41%Hajduk Split clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lincoln Red Imps

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LBrann A1–2
  2. MD2Twente H22 October
  3. MD3Hajduk Split H this match5 November
  4. MD4Egnatia A26 November
  5. MD5Midtjylland H10 December
  6. MD6Monaco A17 December

Hajduk Split

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WAjax H2–1
  2. MD2Thun A22 October
  3. MD3Lincoln Red Imps A this match5 November
  4. MD4Sint-Truidense H26 November
  5. MD5Nordsjælland H10 December
  6. MD6Midtjylland A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split?

The model gives Lincoln Red Imps a 18% chance of winning and Hajduk Split 60%, with a draw at 22%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 0–2 (11%).

Will both teams score in Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Lincoln Red Imps and 1.8 for Hajduk Split, and the match has 3 or more goals in 52% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lincoln Red Imps?

Lincoln Red Imps's qualification chance is 7% right now. A win would make it 21%, a draw 6% and a defeat 3%.

What does this match mean for Hajduk Split?

Hajduk Split's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 87% and a defeat 76%.

When is Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split played?

Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →