Atalanta 3–1 Pafos
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 1 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00
Atalanta beat Pafos 3–1 at home on matchday 1. After the match, Atalanta are 4th with 3 points, with a >99% chance of going through (top 8: 90%). Pafos are now 32nd with 0 points, with a 50% chance of going through (top 8: 5%).
Before kick-off
What the model expected, based on team ratings before matchday 1.
The outcome the model rated most likely (77%). The model's most likely score was 2–0 (13%); the actual score had a 7% chance. Expected goals before the match: Atalanta 2.5, Pafos 0.7.
Chances before and now
Before matchday 1 compared with now, after all results so far.
| Team | Through (top 24) | Top 8 |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 99% → >99% | 85% → 90% |
| Pafos | 55% → 50% | 8% → 5% |
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Atalanta vs Pafos?
The match finished 3–1 (Conference League, matchday 1).
Was Atalanta vs Pafos a surprise?
Before kick-off the model gave Atalanta a 77% chance of winning, a draw 15% and Pafos 8%. The outcome the model rated most likely (77%). The model's most likely score was 2–0 (13%); the actual score had a 7% chance.
How did the result change Atalanta's chances?
Before matchday 1, Atalanta had a 99% chance of going through (top 8: 85%). Now it is >99% (top 8: 90%).
How did the result change Pafos's chances?
Before matchday 1, Pafos had a 55% chance of going through (top 8: 8%). Now it is 50% (top 8: 5%).
When was Atalanta vs Pafos played?
Thursday 15 October, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 1).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 1 fixtures
- Lugano – Crvena Zvezda (3–2)
- Hajduk Split – Ajax (2–1)
- Gent – Aarhus (1–0)
- Egnatia – Midtjylland (1–1)
- KuPS Kuopio – Trabzonspor (2–4)
- Mjällby – Inter Escaldes (2–0)
- Panathinaikos – Borac (2–1)
- CSKA Sofia – Monaco (1–2)
- Riga FC – Kairat Almaty (1–1)
- Universitatea Craiova – Getafe (1–1)
- Brighton – Kauno Žalgiris (4–0)
- Copenhagen – Braga (3–0)
- Twente – Thun (1–0)
- Hearts – Nordsjælland (1–1)
- Sint-Truidense – Iberia Tbilisi (2–0)
- Freiburg – Jablonec (3–2)
- Brann – Lincoln Red Imps (2–1)