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Mjällby vs Borac: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Mjällby6th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
Borac27th, 0 pts
57%Mjällby win
23%Draw
20%Borac win

The model gives Mjällby a 57% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Borac 20%. Mjällby's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 70%. Borac's chance of going through is 27% now: a win would take it to 57%, a defeat to 16%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeMjällby: top 8Mjällby: throughBorac: top 8Borac: through
Now27%88%1%27%
Mjällby win38%97%<1%16%
Draw15%84%<1%29%
Borac win8%70%4%57%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.8 – 0.9Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
39%Mjällby clean sheet
17%Borac clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Mjällby

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WInter Escaldes H2–0
  2. MD2Iberia Tbilisi A22 October
  3. MD3Borac H this match5 November
  4. MD4Kairat Almaty A26 November
  5. MD5Pafos H10 December
  6. MD6Atalanta A17 December

Borac

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LPanathinaikos A1–2
  2. MD2KuPS Kuopio H22 October
  3. MD3Mjällby A this match5 November
  4. MD4Atalanta H26 November
  5. MD5Hearts A10 December
  6. MD6Riga FC H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Mjällby vs Borac?

The model gives Mjällby a 57% chance of winning and Borac 20%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Mjällby vs Borac?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Mjällby and 0.9 for Borac, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Mjällby?

Mjällby's qualification chance is 88% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 84% and a defeat 70%.

What does this match mean for Borac?

Borac's qualification chance is 27% right now. A win would make it 57%, a draw 29% and a defeat 16%.

When is Mjällby vs Borac played?

Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →